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JANUARY 30,  2011

AND NOW IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:  Every now and then, it's important to remind ourselves why the stability of the Muslim world is so important to the United States.  That world includes Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, all of which are seeing serious on-the-street challenges to their political leadership. Even more critical may be Pakistan.  From the Washington Post:

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by nongovernment analysts.

The Pakistanis have significantly accelerated production of uranium and plutonium for bombs and developed new weapons to deliver them. After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

An escalation of the arms race in South Asia poses a dilemmafor the Obama administration, which has worked to improve its economic, political and defense ties with India while seeking to deepen its relationship with Pakistan as a crucial component of its Afghanistan war strategy.

In politically fragile Pakistan, the administration is caught between fears of proliferation or possible terrorist attempts to seize nuclear materials and Pakistani suspicions that the United States aims to control or limit its weapons program and favors India.

Those suspicions were on public display last week at the opening session of U.N. disarmament talks in Geneva, where Pakistani Ambassador Zamir Akram accused the United States and other major powers of "double standards and discrimination" for pushing a global treaty banning all future production of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium.

COMMENT:  The fear is that Pakistan could fall under the control of Islamists.  The instability we're seeing in the Mideast this week can influence Pakistan, where discontent runs high. 

We're in a mess.  We have a weak, vacillating president, a sick economy, a nation deeply in debt, and an ineffective foreign policy based on theories from college faculty lounges.  Jimmah Carter is smiling.  Ronald Reagan is not.

January 30, 2011       Permalink

THIS IS COMPLETELY ASININE – AT 10:44 A.M. ET:  No matter how you feel about the "don't ask, don't tell" issue in the American military, the Pentagon is working to do away with the practice, now that Congress has outlawed it.  And yet, that is apparently not enough for America's wackiest appeals court:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A federal appeals court has denied the government’s request to suspend a lawsuit challenging the military’s ban on openly gay service members.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco issued an order Friday requiring the Department of Justice to file papers by Feb. 25 arguing why the court should overturn a southern California trial judge who declared the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy unconstitutional.

Government lawyers asked the 9th Circuit earlier this month to set aside the case because the Pentagon is moving quickly to satisfy the steps Congress outlined last month when it voted to allow the ban’s repeal.

The appeals court did not explain in its order why it rejected the request.

This is judicial overreach, and, naturally, the court doing the overreaching is in San Francisco, home of Nancy Pelosi. 

Traditionally, courts have been reluctant to involve themselves in matters concerning the governance of the U.S. military.  But the ninth circuit is the most liberal circuit, and has the warm, fuzzy feel of West Coast liberalism.  It seems determined to mess things up as badly as possible, even as the Pentagon proceeds responsibly.

January 30, 2011      Permalink

VINDICATION? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  Are events in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and Jordan vindicating the vision of George W. Bush?  It certainly appears that this is possible, as noted by former Bush official Elliott Abrams in today's Washington Post:

For decades the Arab states have seemed exceptions to the laws of politics and human nature. While liberty expanded in many parts of the globe, these nations were left behind, their "freedom deficit" signaling the political underdevelopment that accompanied many other economic and social maladies. In November 2003, President George W. Bush laid out this question:

"Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?"

The massive and violent demonstrations underway in Egypt, the smaller ones in Jordan and Yemen, and the recent revolt in Tunisia that inspired those events, have affirmed that the answer is no and are exploding, once and for all, the myth of Arab exceptionalism. Arab nations, too, yearn to throw off the secret police, to read a newspaper that the Ministry of Information has not censored and to vote in free elections. The Arab world may not be swept with a broad wave of revolts now, but neither will it soon forget this moment.

COMMENT:  For his democratic vision, George Bush was called a fascist, a Zionist tool, an imperialist, and a warmonger.  By contrast, Barack Obama, who never lifted a finger to advance democracy, was welcomed as a breath of fresh air.

The comparison is troubling, not because Bush's vision was so obviously superior to Obama's, but because the advance of democracy is held in such low regard by the elites, the universities, and the media, even in democratic countries.  I suspect that this is because of the corrosive influence of the left, which is exposed once again as indifferent to democracy, or even hostile to it.

January 30, 2011       Permalink

EGYPT, DAY SIX – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  The demonstrations continue in Egypt.  For the first time, the Egyptian Air Force sent fighters over Cairo, apparently as a warning to demonstrators, although it's hard to see any circumstances under which Egyptian pilots would attack their own people. 

At the same time, the State Department is now advising Americans to leave Egypt:

CAIRO -- The U.S. Embassy in Egypt on Sunday recommended that Americans leave the country as soon as possible, while other nations urged their nationals to avoid traveling to Cairo as days of protests descended into chaos, with looters roaming the streets and travelers stranded in the airport.

The Sunday morning travel warning came as uncertainty mounted over how the demonstrations that have roiled the Arab world's most populous nation will play out. Those questions, coupled with the growing lawlessness, have panicked Egyptians and foreigners alike, with thousands flocking to the airport frantically trying to secure a dwindling number of available seats. Others hopped on private jets and made their escape.

The lawlessness referred to includes mass looting.  In addition, there were several prison breaks last night, apparently engineered to free Islamic extremists.  That is not good news for us.

Egypt has closed down the broadcast facilities of Al Jazeera, charging the Arab broadcaster with incitement.

It is still not at all clear who is benefiting, or will benefit, from the mass demonstrations.  Washington is plainly apprehensive that this could all head south, with nutbag elements, plentiful in the Arab world, taking control of the most important Arab country.

At the same time, Hosni Mubarak clings to power.  Sometimes, dictators ride out these storms.  So far, Mubarak shows no signs of stepping down, but that could change in an instant if a rock with a message comes through his bedroom window.

January 30, 2011     Permalink

JANUARY 29,  2011

EGYPT UPDATE – AT 6:34 P.M. ET:  There were large demonstrations in Egypt today.  Although there was some violence, clashes were far less frequent than yesterday.

The hated police were largely off the streets, replaced by Army units that were remarkably benign.  Army leaders appear to be divided in their loyalties.  They are not firing on the citizens.

There were many incidents of looting, and Egyptians, especially in Cairo, fear for their own property.   There were charges that at least some of the looting was carried out by provocateurs sent by the government to discredit the protesters, but the charges could not be confirmed.

In the West, commentators are increasingly worried about who might eventually benefit from these protests.  The most common term heard is "Muslim Brotherhood," the fundamentalist organization that provided the original inspiration for Al Qaeda.  The idea of Egypt, the most important Arab country, falling under Islamist control is an absolute nightmare. That would probably wreck the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, creating an entirely new, and dangerous, strategic environment.  And it would almost certainly lead to other Arab countries going in the same direction. 

Never depend on Arab countries to do anything right.  The populations of these nations have, for as long as we can remember, been fed a steady diet of fantasies and conspiracy theories by their media and local imams.  Their heads are not exactly clear.  The Arab world is the last group of dictatorships on Earth, it produces almost nothing, and there are reasons for both phenomena.

There were also demonstrations today by Egyptian-Americans in the United States.  Readers are advised to look at these demonstrations with two eyes.  Not all may be what it seems.  Be especially wary of demonstrators with pre-printed signs, as we must wonder who owns the printing presses.  I saw some "protesters" with placards saying they were part of "Answer international."  Answer is a pro-Communist coalition operating out of the United States, which the media regularly identifies as an "anti-war" group.  Yeah, right.  It's anti any war America has a chance of winning.

I knock the media, and for good reason, but coverage of the Egyptian situation has been reasonably solid in the outlets I've checked.  Even CNN, now free of the burden of Christiane Amanpour, has been remarkably straightforward.  We'll see if that continues.

The first thing we'll be looking for is to see if the protests go on.  They could fade away, leaving a weakened Mubarak still in power, and the public still angry.  If they continue, we could see serious convulsions throughout the Mideast.

January 29, 2011       Permalink

UNDER THE RADAR – AT 11:12 A.M. ET:  While we've been concentrating on other stories, the U.S. Civil Rights Commission has issued a blistering report on the Justice Department's handling of the Black Panther voter intimidation case.  From NRO:

The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights’s interim report on the New Black Panther Party voter-intimidation case is now available on the commission’s website...

...The bottom line? The evidence shows that a racial double standard prevails in the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice. It dismissed the voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party because of hostility to the idea of enforcing the Voting Rights Act against black defendants. Moreover, the Justice Department broke the law by stonewalling the Civil Rights Commission’s investigation, defying lawfully issued subpoenas and a federal statute outlining its obligation to cooperate with Commission investigations, as well as claiming non-existent privileges to justify its refusal to release relevant (and probably embarrassing) documents and communications. As Commissioner and Corner contributor Peter Kirsanow stated in the report, the Justice Department engaged “in a degree of stonewalling and obstruction inexplicable for an agency professing clean hands.”

COMMENT:  Nice, huh?  We forget that, as much as President Obama wants to appear to be moving to the center, we are still stuck with the radical appointees who took office when his administration came to power.  Among the worst are some of the officials of the Justice Department. 

If this were a Republican administration, the painstream media would be up in arms about corruption at Justice.  But notice the silence, and the deep silence of those in the "civil liberties community."  Hypocrites.  Just hypocrites.

January 29, 2011      Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:36 A.M. ET:  After a bump in the polls following his Tucson speech, Rasmussen is reporting that President Obama's poll numbers are starting to settle back again, although they're still higher than they have been in recent months.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9 (see trends).

These results are based upon nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the speech. Just before the speech, the president’s Approval Index rating was -5.

And...

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Just before the State-of-the-Union Address, the president’s overall approval rating reached a 15-month high at 52%.

Forty-nine percent (49%) now disapprove.

COMMENT:   The American people will be judging the president on his handling of the Mideast crisis, but eventually the economy will dominate voters' opinions.

Mr. Obama's current ratings are respectable, if not spectacular.  They are respectable enough to get him reelected, if these numbers hold, especially in the face of a Republican field with no discernible major vote getter.  But if the president's ratings return to the low 40's, the game is changed...assuming the GOP can come up with a candidate who can breathe and have a heartbeat at the same time.

January 29, 2011       Permalink

EGYPT TODAY – AT 10:04 A.M. ET:  Demonstrations continue in Egypt today.  At this hour, though, they are more peaceful than they were yesterday.  There has been some violence reported at the Interior Ministry in Cairo and in different parts of Alexandria.

The Egyptian Cabinet has resigned, but Hosni Mubarak, the object of the protesters, has not. 

A number of commentators are cautioning that regimes can ride out these protests, as the Iranian regime did in the face of similar opposition. 

The United States is giving some verbal support to the demonstrators, but it is guarded.  Washington is well aware that the next Egyptian government, even one installed through "popular" protests, can be worse than the one in power.

It is interesting that, after "experts" and Obaman officials tried, during the first 18 months or so of this administration, to sell us the line that discontent in the Mideast is based mostly on the Israel-Palestinian conflict, that dispute hasn't even been mentioned. 

Protests also continue in Jordan, but they are getting very little media coverage.

We are watching this and will report any actual developments of significance.  Be aware that the 24-hour news cycle means there'll be a lot of chatter on TV, much of it more padding than wisdom.  The situation in Egypt is unresolved.

January 29, 2011      Permalink